Midland, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

760
FXUS65 KPSR 170933
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
233 AM MST Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance will slowly track through the region over
the next couple of days bringing much cooler temperatures, periods
of breezy to locally windy conditions, and a chance for showers
late Friday into early Saturday focused across the Arizona high
terrain. Weak high pressure will eventually build back over the
region Sunday into early next week resulting in temperatures
warming to slightly above normal levels and a return to dry
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level ridge that has been parked over our region over
the past week or so is finally getting ejected to the east as
large scale troughing is slowly taking over across the Western
U.S. There are two distinct weather systems within the large scale
trough with a weakening low just off the coast of southern
California and another more potent system quickly diving southward
across eastern Oregon and Idaho. The system to our west has
already been responsible for breezy to locally windy conditions
since yesterday and the beginning of a cooling trend, but its the
northern stream system that will bring any precipitation chances
as it swings through on Friday into early Saturday.

For today, the system to our west will bring in noticeably cooler
conditions and below normal high temperatures as it continues to
fall apart as it enters our region. We will again see enhanced
winds mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, but not quite
as strong as yesterday. Better low level moisture will also
continue to spread northeastward through our area with surface
dew points rising to around 40 degrees by this afternoon. Overall,
aside from the breeziness, weather conditions today will be quite
nice with highs mostly in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees and
generally clear skies.

The northern weather system is then expected to move across the
Great Basin tonight before entering our region on Friday. Guidance
is in good agreement showing the bulk of the energy and colder air
aloft tracking across northern Arizona later on Friday through
Friday night. For our area, we can expect another day of breezy to
locally windy conditions on Friday with clouds increasing across
much of Arizona by the afternoon as a weakening cold front shifts
southeastward through the state. Moisture will become more
concentrated within the mid-levels on Friday as the system moves
through the region with showers likely developing over the Arizona
higher terrain from Flagstaff and locations just south and east of
Flagstaff during the morning hours. As the cold front pushes
into our area later in the afternoon and evening, we are likely
to see these showers move into Maricopa and Gila Counties,
including the Phoenix area. The best chances for measurable
rainfall will be focused north and east of Phoenix where up to a
0.25" will be possible, whereas most of Phoenix should only see a
trace to a few hundredths. A dry sub-cloud layer is expected to be
present on Friday and this very well could lead to localized
gusty winds of 25-40 mph associated with any more vigorous
showers. For the Phoenix metro, Friday evening looks to be the
highest probability of seeing any shower activity. Any lingering
shower activity is likely to move to the east and southeast of
Phoenix by around midnight with some isolated showers still
possible across the far eastern Arizona higher terrain through
Saturday morning.

The weather system is forecast to shift out of Arizona by late
Saturday afternoon with upper level ridging quickly filling in
behind the system. This will lead to drying conditions and overall
sunny skies on Saturday for most of the area as temperatures
remain several degrees below normal. The warmer temperatures from
the ridge will eventually be felt starting Sunday as highs reach
back into the normal range. Ensemble guidance then favors broad
troughing setting up across the majority of the northern tier
states resulting in quasi-zonal westerly dry flow likely
dominating over the Desert Southwest for the rest of next week.
Temperatures are expected to stabilize at 3-5 degrees above
normal starting Monday with highs in the upper 80s to the lower
90s. These dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures
should last through the entirety of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0545Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the
forecast period. Winds are expected to shift out of the S-SE
overnight at all metro terminals and remain mostly southerly
through sunrise with speeds aob 10 kts. Winds will then return
back out of the WSW at all terminals late tomorrow morning. By
sunrise tomorrow morning, model guidance and forecast soundings
continue to suggest a low cloud deck developing with bases around
4 kft. There is a low chance <30% that this deck will become BKN,
but is more likely to be FEW-SCT and only persist for a few hrs
before scattering out. Otherwise, skies should remain mostly
clear through the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation weather concern continues to be strong westerly
winds at KIPL where observed gusts have been as high as 35-40
kts. These stronger gusts should only last for another hour or two
before falling to around 20-30 kts overnight. Winds will be much
lighter at KBLH overnight, but will still remain elevated around
11-15 kts of out of the S-SW. Skies are expected to be mostly
clear at both terminals through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A more unsettled weather pattern is expected over the next few
days as a weather system slowly moves through the region. This
will result in continued periods of breezy to locally windy
conditions with gusts at times between 20-30 mph. Scattered
showers will also become possible later Friday through Friday
night across South-central AZ with a remote chance of a weak
thunderstorm or two focused over the AZ higher terrain.
Increasing moisture and cooling temperatures will also help to
raise RHs and lessen the heightened fire weather conditions
through at least the start of the weekend. By Sunday into early
next week, warming temperatures and lowering RH values will
return to the districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Friday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman